Forecasting Shock-Associated Energetic Particle Intensities in the Inner Heliosphere
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This article is based on the fourth paper in the collection PUNCH Mission: An Overview – A Topical Issue of Solar Physics.
By tracking the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) speed relative to the surrounding background, PUNCH can now forecast radiation levels from space weather events known as Energetic Storm Particle (ESP) showers (from Dayeh et al. 2025).
Energetic particles associated with shocks driven by fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs) or shocks developed by stream interaction regions (SIRs) often extend to high energies and are key elements of space weather. PUNCH is designed to track of solar wind structures through interplanetary space. Dayeh et al. (2025) reported a strong and robust relation between the shock speed jump magnitude at CME and SIR shocks, and the peak fluxes of energetic particles. Their analysis was based on 59 CME-driven shocks and 74 CIRs observed by Wind/STEP between 1997 – 2023. With that relationship, QuickPUNCH image sequences, and new methods for identifying speed jumps in the solar wind, we can forecast shock-associated particle events and their location in interplanetary space. PUNCH science data may become a crucial input to forecasting radiation events in the inner heliosphere.
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